‘Alien: Covenant’ Narrowly Justifies the Continuation of the Franchise

The new prequel sequel posted the fourth best opening for the franchise.

It sounds worse than it is to report Alien: Covenant opened lower —estimated at $36M—than both Prometheus ($51M, or $56M adjusted for inflation) and Alien vs. Predator ($38M, or $55M adjusted for inflation). Technically, with inflation adjustment, the new prequel is also posting a debut that’s smaller than Alien 3‘s ($19M, or $41M adjusted for inflation). Opening numbers reflect the excitement for a movie and not its overall success or appreciation, and those top three installments of the Alien franchise were very big moments for the franchise in terms of fanticipation. And each was met with a level of disappointment, so the follow-ups to each, Covenant now included, were not as enticing to moviegoers.

Fortunately for the franchise, which has plans for at least two more prequels (totaling four films set before Alien, which makes sense for the series that popularized the term “quadrilogy” with its four-installment main series run), Covenant was also cheaper to make than Prometheus and its worldwide gross is already higher than its budget. Just as it is here, Covenant is underperforming compared to its predecessor in most territories, though it’s actually doing better in many Asian markets. Even with an opening weekend gross on the low end of box office projections, especially those made when it earned an impressive but ultimately front-loaded $4M on Thursday night, there’s no reason for Fox to be concerned.

For those who did go see the prequel sequel over the weekend, reception has been similar to that of Prometheus. Both movies earned a ‘B’ grade through Cinemscore polling, and their review aggregate score on Rotten Tomatoes are exactly the same at 72% (the average rating was higher for Prometheus, however). Overall buzz seems to be that people either really love it or downright despise it. How many fans of the franchise can truly give up on the series, though? Especially as it gets closer to forming a direct link to the 1979 original movie, possibly even with an appearance from a digitally de-aged Sigourney Weaver back in the role of Ripley. Even if the next installment isn’t up to Prometheus levels on its opening weekend, that fourth should bring everyone back into the theaters, out of urgent curiosity for how it will all connect.

When it comes to prequel film series, though, its hard to predict interest far in advance because there’s no consistency among them all. Star Wars prequel openings were each bigger than the one before, despite all the dissatisfaction with the first one, The Phantom Menace. Star Trek reboot and The Hobbit openings, meanwhile, dropped with each installment. X-Men main series openings since it went back in time with First Class have been up and down. Planet of the Apes, which sort of counts, has so far been on the incline, but early predictions for the upcoming War for the Planet of the Apes have it opening lower than the other two.

Depending on what it offers, the next Alien might continue the decline or see a jump in anticipation. But it’s hard to see how much more story there is between Covenant and the first Alien. At the end of the new movie, we know that the colony ship with its 2,000 deep-sleep inhabitants is pretty much doomed. Could we see a movie entirely set on the Covenant as the aliens tear through so many bodies? Could such a sequel have Katherine Waterston’s Daniels dead from the start or back for more action as she battles both Xenomorphs and Michael Fassbender’s bad robot, David?

Two things the Alien prequels will continue to have are actor Michael Fassbender and director Ridley Scott, both of whom should keep its audience intrigued. And the franchise brand name will always provide some fuel. Covenant opened slightly bigger than Terminator Genisys, a movie that brought back star Arnold Schwarzenegger and still seemed to kill its franchise with its disappointing box office until just this morning we reported that the Terminator series is in fact continuing with original director James Cameron on board as a producer. There’s just no death to some of these properties.

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